Ecosystem Modeling – 02 Introduction

Ecosystem Analysis Using Probabilistic Relational Modeling



Ecosystems are composed of interacting populations of organisms and their environments. They are notoriously difficult to study because of their size and complexity. In addition, many are unique. Controlled experimentation in these ecosystems is undesirable because of the potentially irreversible damage it may cause. However, observational data are often abundant. The challenge in studying ecosystems is to synthesize these data into coherent, comprehensive, biologically meaningful models.

While data collection traditions and techniques are mature, data analysis methodologies are less well developed. Generally, individual, domain-specific teams (e.g., a team of physicists or a team of biologists) apply traditional statistical methods to investigate pair-wise correlations among variables in their separate datasets, but have no methods for investigating the complex, noisy, cross-disciplinary interactions that are crucial to understanding the ecosystem as a whole. As a result, the standard ecosystem-level computational scientific method is a form of “generate and test”: the manual construction of mechanistic models and model selection by comparing simulation results to data or expert knowledge. Probabilistic models of ecosystems are slowly becoming more common, however these have been constructed using knowledge-engineering (Kuikka et al., 1999, Marcot et al., 2001).

Most of the data collected in studies of ecological systems is stored in relational databases. An emerging family of methods for relational learning [Muggleton and De Raedt, 1994], [Van Laer and De Raedt, 2001], [Quinlan, 1996], [Getoor et al., 1999] provide the opportunity to learn comprehensive models directly from these relational data sources.

In this paper, we present the results of initial explorations into the application of model discovery methods to build comprehensive ecosystem models from data. Working with collaborators in the USGS Biological Resources Discipline and the Environmental Protection Agency, we are engaged in two projects that apply probabilistic relational model discovery to build “community-level” models of ecosystems. (A community level ecosystem model is an integrated model of the ecosystem as a whole.) The goal of our modeling effort is to aid domain scientists in gaining insight into data and to construct complex prior hypotheses about the ecosystems studied. Our preliminary work leads us to believe the method has tremendous promise. At the same time, we have encountered some limitations in existing methods. We briefly describe two projects and make some observations, particularly with respect to the development of “synthetic”, or derived, variables.

Probabilistic relational model discovery methods exploit a relational data model to derive parameters that account for variation in the explicit variables in a data model. In a Hollywood database, for example, an actor’s income may be related to the number of movies in which s/he played a role. [Getoor et al., 1999] introduce the concepts of a path (a chain of references – e.g. “actor.role” above), and a terminal aggregator (e.g., “number” or count above) as defining a space of synthetic variables. We have found this framework useful, but limited in its ability to account for all known interactions in our data. We will describe examples motivating the introduction of two additional features, selectors and variables, into a synthetic variable grammar.

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