Hazards of Silicic Eruptions Outside the Caldera
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Silicic magma generated in a reawakened Mazama system might
erupt outside of the caldera but within a few kilometers of the caldera rim. It
is impossible to forecast this type of event or to determine where such an
eruption would be most likely because of the drastic reorganization of the
magmatic plumbing system that took place when the caldera formed. We believe the
probability of such an eruption is less than for an eruption within the caldera.
Nevertheless, it is worthwhile to describe the types of phenomena that could be
expected.
Silicic eruptions typically begin with hydromagmatic explosions
as the slowly rising magma heats groundwater in the shallow subsurface. Such
explosions will be most likely in poorly-drained areas. Commonly, explosive
magmatic eruptions follow the vent-clearing, hydromagmatic phase. Both phases
can produce pyroclastic surges, flows, and falls. Factors controlling the runout
distances of surges and pyroclastic flows are described above (see Proximal hazard zones for explosive eruptions). Heavy rainfall on fresh
pyroclastic deposits may feed lahars (see Hazards of lahars (volcanic
debris flows) and their runout flows).
Viscous magma that has lost its
original gas may eventually extrude from the vent to form a lava dome or
slowly-moving flow. Relatively small pyroclastic surges or flows may form as hot
lava blocks fall from the unstable dome or flow front. The smallest domes are
only a few tens of meters in diameter. Larger silicic lava flows are exemplified
at Crater Lake by the preclimactic rhyodacite flows such as Cleetwood, Llao
Rock, Grouse Hill, and Redcloud Cliff. They were preceded by plinian
eruptions that resulted in tephra fall as far as several hundred
kilometers from their vents. These eruptions were fed by the climactic magma
chamber, which contained a large volume of silicic magma at the time. The
present magma system is unlikely to have accumulated such a large volume of
eruptible magma in the 7,700 years since the climactic eruption (see Another large volume or caldera-forming eruption?). Consequently, we do not
consider eruptions of this magnitude to be likely in the next few thousand
years. A smaller silicic eruption within a few kilometers of the caldera cannot
be ruled out. We have not designated a specific hazard zone for this type of
eruption on plate 1 because it would approximately coincide with Proximal Hazard
Zone PB.